Climate change has countless perverse effects which are well known; temperatures rising, ozone degradation, harm to wildlife, pollution. But in addition to these, climate change can aggravate conflicts, and even lead to war, and terrorism. The Lake Chad region has been center of many tensions since the 1970s, due to terrorism, as well as disputes over resources. Four countries struggle for the lake’s resources around its borders: Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Cameroon.
What makes this lake so attractive? Economically, it is vital: it provides water to 30 million people, and has large oil resources, which helped boost Nigeria’s GDP (Nett, Ruttinger, 2016)
The Chad Lake is situated in a partly arid region of the Sahel, which is particularly vulnerable to climate change consequences. The number of rainy days in northern Nigeria is 53% less than in the 1970s, and in Chad, temperature is going up twice as much as the average climate change temperatures (Nett, Rüttinger, 2016). Its surfaced has been reduced by 90% since 1960, and this trend is just continuing. If the shrinkage isn’t reined in, the lake could completely disappear. Within 20 years, which would have disastrously unimaginable consequences for people and terrorism. Climate change is increasingly referred to as a security problem.
Consequently, 17 million people in the region are facing a situation caused by extreme poverty, and over climate change and conflict 10 million people urgently necessitate lifesaving protection and humanitarian help. But the conflict is causing security and access issues, which hinders the provision of aid (Médecins Sans Frontières).
This situation can be examined through the lens of a realist theory of international relations, which argues that state’s want to maximize their self-interests, and survival. States want to maximize what Waltz (1979) calls capabilities: their resources. The structural distribution of capabilities prevents cooperation since states are preoccupied by pursuing their interests, and ensuring their relative gains are highest. This leads to a sort of tragedy of the commons, and to a harsh reduction of resources. In this context, we can see a clear demonstration of the balance of power: all countries bordering the lake were trying to maximize their capabilities thanks to the resources provided by the lake, be it oil or water, and water scarcity contributes to a nation’s insecurity. In the Chad basin, states clashed over conflicting national interests, and rivaled for the lake’s resources. In the 1970s, Chad and Nigeria both hoped to exploit the oil resources. States tried to maximize their power by exploiting the resources; Nigeria has three of the largest dams, and Chad built the region’s most extensive irrigation project. As much as 38 million people live around the Chad Basin, and depend on it. Consequently, there are conflicts between fishermen, herders, farmers: it’s a free for all with disastrous consequences. The lakes decreased is caused by overuse and human intervention, such as dam construction, as well as climate change.
Effectively, climate change is acting as a threat multiplier, by simultaneously reducing environmental resources, and aggravating political tensions. This creates a vicious cycle, and border countries now face a double threat from climate change and terrorism. The demand and use of water by surrounding states is responsible for 30% of the lake’s decrease (Mwiturubani, Wyk, 2010). This led to armed conflict in 1983.
Boko Haram launched an insurgency which expanded to neighboring countries in 2009, heightening the fight for resources. Boko Haram has killed over twenty thousand people, and caused the displacement of two million. Due to the reduction of resources, there is extreme poverty, and the ‘environmental degradation [is] providing fertile ground’ for terrorism to thrive (Nett, Rüttinger, 2016:16). The lack of economic opportunity and widespread insecurity and instability is conducting young men to join Boko Haram; worsening insecurity. Boko Haram uses resources scarcity to their advantage, further threatening states, for instance by poisoning the water to reduce the resources available. This caused much migration to struggling communities, which puts a strain onto resources, amounting to a vicious circle, and reduces the power of a country to provide resources to its population, thereby weakening it, as countries are scared of losing power (Nett, Rüttinger, 2016). The quantity of internally displaced people has exacerbated tensions for host countries, and weakens them, which makes states menaced to have the balance of power tip to the adverse side, as they have diminished capabilities, relating to the security dilemma (Waltz, 1979). There are increasing tensions over resources, as pastoralists have to go closer to waters for their livestock, which sparked conflict with farmers around the lake, and led to hundreds of deadly clashes in Nigeria (Mohanty, 2021). This is exacerbated by unclear borders, leading to territorial disputes in an attempt to increase capabilities. Conflicts for resources contribute to instability and precariousness, which renders people more susceptible to joining terrorist groups, therefore climate change is directly linked to Boko Haram (Nett, Rüttinger, 2016), creating a vicious cycle aggravating tensions and insecurity.
The Nigerian government has explained that Boko Haram cannot be removed by military force, and the solution must reach the root of the problem: the environmental degradation (Zarembka, 2019).
Hence, climate change has been a conflict aggravator in the Chad basin. This also implies that solving the environmental conflict, and reversing climate change could help solve terrorism conflict.
Nett, K., Rüttinger, L. (2016). Insurgency, Terrorism and Organised Crime in a Warming Climate. [online] Adelphi.
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) International. (n.d.). Lake Chad Crisis in depth | MSF. [online] Available at: https://www.msf.org/lake-chad-crisis-depth [Accessed 7 May 2021].
Mwiturubani, D., Wyk, J. (2010) Climate Change and Natural Resources conflicts in Africa. Institute for Security Studies
Waltz, K., N. 2010 (1979). ‘Reductionist and Systemic Theories’ and ‘Anarchic Orders and Balances of Powers’. In Theory of International Politics. Long Grove, IL: Waveland Press, 60-78, 102-128